Interactive Impacts of Uncertainties in Bias-Corrected Hydrologic
Simulations: Southern China
Abstract
This study aims to comprehensively examine diverse
uncertainties/multiplicities (e.g., performance indicators,
bias-correction methods, hydrologic models, bias-correction schemes,
predictor combinations, watersheds, streamflow magnitudes, and temporal
scales) in bias-corrected hydrologic simulations (BCHS). The focus is
placed on the variations of BCHS accuracies (representing climatic
impacts on runoffs) with every uncertainty, as well as their
interactions with the other uncertainties. To achieve this, an
integrated bias-corrected hydro-modeling uncertainty analysis approach
(IBCHMUA) is developed based on one advanced hydro-modeling method,
i.e., discrete principal-monotonicity inference (DiPMI), and two
hydrologic models, i.e., Xin’anjiang and HyMOD. IBCHMUA is applied to
two representative watersheds (Xiangxi and Zhongzhou) in southern China.
Many findings are revealed. For instance, it is necessary to apply
multiple performance indicators and DiPMI is effective in correcting
hydro-model biases. Every uncertainty poses significant impacts on BCHS,
and the significance of the impacts further varies with all or part of
the other uncertainties. BCHS accuracies (or the estimated climatic
impacts on runoffs in southern China) increase from daily to monthly
scales, from Xiangxi to Zhongzhou Watersheds, from the highest through
the lowest to the overall runoff magnitudes, from Xin’anjiang to HyMOD
models, and from original to bias-corrected hydrologic simulations.
Meanwhile, the impacts of the uncertainties in BCHS decrease from
bias-correction schemes, temporal scales, streamflow magnitudes,
hydrologic models or predictor combinations, to watersheds. These
findings are helpful for reducing the complexity and enhancing the
reliability of BCHS under diverse uncertainties, and point out the
importance of taking into account the interactions of the uncertainties
in BCHS studies.