Using an Interpretable Machine Learning Approach to Characterize Earth
System Model Errors: Application of SHAP Analysis to Modeling Lightning
Flash Occurrence
Abstract
Computational models of the Earth System are critical tools for modern
scientific inquiry. Efforts toward evaluating and improving errors in
representations of physical and chemical processes in these large
computational systems are commonly stymied by highly nonlinear and
complex error behavior. Recent work has shown that these errors can be
effectively predicted using modern Artificial Intelligence (A.I.)
techniques. In this work, we go beyond these previous studies to apply
an interpretable A.I. technique to not only predict model errors but
also move toward understanding the underlying reasons for successful
error prediction. We use XGBoost classification trees and SHapley
Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to explore the errors in the
prediction of lightning occurrence in the NASA GEOS model, a widely used
Earth System Model. This interpretable error prediction system can
effectively predict the model error and indicates that the errors are
strongly related to convective processes and the characteristics of the
land surface.