Abstract
Substorm onset location varies over a range of magnetic local times
(MLTs) and magnetic latitudes (MLats). Different studies have shown that
about 5${\%}$ of the variation in onset MLT can be
explained by variations in interplanetary magnetic field orientation and
seasonal variations. Both parameters introduce an azimuthal component to
the magnetic field in the magnetosphere such that the projection of the
onset MLT in the ionosphere is shifted. Recent studies have suggested
that gradients in the ionospheric Hall conductance lead to a duskward
shift of the magnetotail dynamics, which could also influence the
location of substorm onset. In this paper, we quantify the dependence of
the spatial variation of the onset location on the geomagnetic activity
level prior to onset. We find that the dependence of onset location on
prior conditions is as strong as the dependence on IMF By.