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Insights from CMIP6 for Australia's future climate
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  • Michael Richard Grose,
  • Sugata Narsey,
  • Francois Delage,
  • Andrew J. Dowdy,
  • Margot Bador,
  • Ghyslaine Boschat,
  • Christine Chung,
  • Jules Kajtar,
  • Surendra Rauniyar,
  • Mandy Freund,
  • Kewei Lyu,
  • Harun A. Rashid,
  • Xuebin Zhang,
  • Scott Wales,
  • Claire Trenham,
  • Neil J. Holbrook,
  • Tim Cowan,
  • Lisa Victoria Alexander,
  • Julie M. Arblaster,
  • Scott Brendan Power
Michael Richard Grose
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Sugata Narsey
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
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Francois Delage
Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)
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Andrew J. Dowdy
Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)
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Margot Bador
Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and Climate Change Research Centre, the University of New South Wales
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Ghyslaine Boschat
University of Melbourne
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Christine Chung
Bureau of Meteorology
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Jules Kajtar
University of Tasmania
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Surendra Rauniyar
Australia Bureau of Meteorology
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Mandy Freund
CSIRO Agriculture and Food
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Kewei Lyu
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
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Harun A. Rashid
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
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Xuebin Zhang
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
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Scott Wales
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
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Claire Trenham
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
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Neil J. Holbrook
University of Tasmania
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Tim Cowan
The Bureau of Meteorology
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Lisa Victoria Alexander
University of New South Wales
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Julie M. Arblaster
Monash University
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Scott Brendan Power
Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)
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Abstract

Outputs from new state-of-the-art climate models under the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) promise improvement and enhancement of climate change projections information for Australia. Here we focus on three key aspects of CMIP6: what is new in these models, how the available CMIP6 models evaluate compared to CMIP5, and their projections of the future Australian climate compared to CMIP5 focussing on the highest emissions scenario. The CMIP6 ensemble has several new features of relevance to policy-makers and others, for example the integrated matrix of socio-economic and concentration pathways. The CMIP6 models show incremental improvements in the simulation of the climate in the Australian region, including a reduced equatorial Pacific cold-tongue bias, slightly improved rainfall teleconnections with regional climate drivers, improved representation of atmosphere and ocean extreme heat events, as well as dynamic sea level. However, important regional biases remain, evident in the excessive precipitation over the Maritime Continent and precipitation pattern biases in the nearby tropical convergence zones. Projections of temperature and rainfall from the available CMIP6 ensemble broadly agree with those from CMIP5, except for a group of CMIP6 models with higher climate sensitivity and greater warming and increase in some extremes after 2050. CMIP6 rainfall projections are similar to CMIP5, but the ensemble examined has a narrower range of rainfall change in summer in the north and winter in the south. Overall, future national projections are likely to be similar to previous versions but perhaps with some areas of improved confidence and clarity.
May 2020Published in Earth's Future volume 8 issue 5. 10.1029/2019EF001469