Climate as a Risk Factor for Armed Conflict: State of Knowledge and
Directions for Research
Abstract
In this presentation, we report on a comprehensive and balanced
assessment of the relationship between climate and conflict risks and
its implications for future directions of research. Research findings on
the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested.
Based on the judgments of experts representing a broad range of
disciplines and analytical approaches, we have assessed current
understanding. The assessment is structured around the importance of
climate as a driver of organized armed conflict within countries,
changes in conflict risk across climate futures, and implications for
conflict risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Across experts,
best estimates are that 3–20% of conflict risk over the last century
has been influenced by climate, and none of their individual ranges
excludes a role of climate in 10% of conflict risk to date. There is
agreement that climate variability and change shape the risk of
organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers are
judged substantially more influential for conflict overall, and the
mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages are a key uncertainty.
Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future conflict
risk as additional linkages become relevant, although uncertainties also
expand. Synoptic understanding of the climate–conflict relationship is
important even if climate’s role is relatively minor among the drivers
of conflict. Given that conflict has pervasive detrimental human,
economic, and environmental consequences, climate–conflict linkages,
even if minor, would significantly influence the social costs of carbon
and decisions to limit future climate change. The assessment has pointed
to the different ways climate may interact with the major drivers of
conflict risk. Crosscutting priorities for future directions of research
include (1) deepening insight into climate–conflict linkages and
conditions under which they manifest, (2) ambitiously integrating
research designs, (3) systematically exploring future risks and response
options, responsive to ongoing decision-making, and (4) evaluating the
effectiveness of interventions to manage climate–conflict links. The
implications of this expanding scientific domain unfold in real time.