Abstract
The paper investigates the applicability of machine learning (ML) to
weather prediction by building a reservoir-computing-based,
low-resolution, global prediction model. The model is designed to take
advantage of the massively parallel architecture of a modern
supercomputer. The forecast performance of the model is assessed by
comparing it to that of daily climatology, persistence, and a numerical
(physics-based) model of identical prognostic state variables and
resolution. Hourly resolution 20-day forecasts with the model predict
realistic values of the atmospheric state variables at all forecast
times for the entire globe. The ML model outperforms both climatology
and persistence for the first three forecast days in the midlatitudes,
but not in the tropics. Compared to the numerical model, the ML model
performs best for the state variables most affected by parameterized
processes in the numerical model.