Regional-scale, sector-specific evaluation of global CO2 inversion
models using aircraft data from the ACT-America project
Abstract
We use 148 airborne vertical profiles of CO2 for frontal cases from the
summer 2016 Atmospheric Carbon and Transport-America (ACT-America)
campaign to evaluate the skill of ten global CO2 in situ inversion
models from the version 7 Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) Model
Intercomparison Project (MIP). Model errors (model posterior-observed
CO2 dry air mole fractions) were categorized by region (Mid-Atlantic,
Midwest, and South), frontal sector (warm or cold), and transport model
(predominantly Tracer Model 5 (TM5) and Goddard Earth Observing
System-Chemistry (GEOS-Chem)). All inversions assimilated the same CO2
observations. Overall, the median inversion profiles reproduce the
general structures of the observations (enhanced / depleted low-level
CO2 in warm / cold sectors), but 1) they underestimate the magnitude of
the warm / cold sector mole fraction difference, and 2) the spread among
individual inversions can be quite large (> 5 ppm).
Uniquely in the Mid-Atlantic, inversion biases segregated according to
atmospheric transport model, where TM5 inversions biases were-3 to-4 ppm
in warm sectors, while those of GEOS-Chem were +2 to +3 ppm in cold
sectors. The large spread among the mean posterior CO2 profiles is not
explained by the different atmospheric transport models. These results
show that the inversion systems themselves are the dominant cause of
this spread, and that the aircraft campaign data are clearly able to
identify these large biases. Future controlled experiments should
identify which inversions best reproduce midlatitude CO2 mole fractions,
and how inversion system components are linked to system performance.