Meng Luo

and 5 more

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) represents a key process of human-Earth system interaction and has profound impacts on ecosystem carbon cycling. As a key input for ecosystem models, future gridded LULCC data is typically spatially downscaled from regionally LULCC projections by integrated assessment models. The uncertainty associated with different spatial downscaling methods and its impacts on subsequent model projections have been historically ignored and rarely examined. This study investigated this problem using two representative spatial downscaling methods and focused on the impacts on the carbon cycle over ABoVE domain. Specifically, we used the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) and Demeter model to generate 0.25-degree gridded LULCC data with the same input of regional LULCC projections from Global Change Analysis Model, under SSP126 and SSP585. The two sets of downscaled LULCC were used to drive CLM5 to prognostically simulate terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics over the 21st century. The results suggest large spatial-temporal differences between two LULCC datasets under both SSP126 and SSP585. The LULCC differences further lead to large discrepancies in the spatial patterns of projected carbon cycle variables, which are more than 79% of the contributions of LULCC in 2100. Besides, the difference for LULCC and carbon flux under SSP126 is generally larger than those under SSP585. This study highlights the importance of considering the uncertainties induced by spatial downscaling process in future LULCC projections and carbon cycle simulations.

Anam Munir Khan

and 6 more

Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) is the largest flux in the global carbon cycle and satellite-based GPP estimates have long been used to study the trends and inter-annual variability of GPP. With recent updates to geostationary satellites, we can now explore the diurnal variability of GPP at a comparable spatial resolution to polar-orbiting satellites and at temporal frequencies comparable to eddy covariance (EC) tower sites. We used observations from the Advanced Baseline Imager on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites - R series (GOES-R) to test the ability of sub-daily satellite data to capture the shifts in the diurnal course of GPP at an oak savanna EC site in California, USA that is subject to seasonal soil moisture declines. We optimized parameters for three models to estimate GPP. A light response curve (LRC) achieved the lowest test mean absolute error for winter (1.82 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1), spring (2.51 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1), summer (1.45 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1), and fall (1.25 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1). The ecosystem experienced the largest shift in daily peak GPP in relation to the peak of incoming solar radiation towards the morning hours during the dry summers. The LRC and the light-use efficiency model were in agreement with these patterns of increasing shift of GPP towards the morning hours during the summer months. Our results can help develop diurnal estimates of GPP from geostationary satellites that are sensitive to fluctuating environmental conditions during the day.