A Unified Framework for Extreme Sub-daily Precipitation Frequency
Analyses based on Ordinary Events
Abstract
The metastatistical extreme value approach proved promising in the
frequency analysis of daily precipitation from ordinary events,
outperforming traditional methods based on sampled extremes. However,
sub-daily applications are currently restrained as it is not known if
ordinary events can be consistently examined over durations, and it is
not clear to what extent their entire distributions represent extremes.
We propose here a unified definition of ordinary events across
durations, and suggest the simplified metastatistical extreme value
formulation for dealing with extremes emerging from the tail, rather
than the entire distributions, of ordinary events. This unified
framework provides robust estimates of extreme quantiles (≤10% error on
the 100-year from a 26-year long record), and allows scaling
representations in which ordinary and extreme events share the scaling
exponent. Future applications could improve our knowledge of sub-daily
extreme precipitation and help investigating the impact of local factors
and climatic forcing on their frequency.