Abstract
The climatological atmospheric circulation is key to establishing the
tropical ‘pattern effect’, whereby cloud feedbacks induced by sea
surface temperature (SST) warming depend on the spatial structure of
that warming. But how patterned warming-induced circulation changes
affect cloud responses is less clear. Here we use idealized simulations
with prescribed SST perturbations to understand the contributions to
changes in tropical-mean cloud radiative effects (CRE) from different
circulation regimes. We develop a novel framework based on moist static
energy to understand the circulation response, targeting in particular
the bulk circulation metric of ascent fraction. Warming concentrated in
regions of ascent leads to a strong ‘upped-ante’ effect and spatial
contraction of the ascending region. Our framework reveals substantial
contributions to tropical-mean CRE changes not only from traditional
‘pattern effect’ regimes, but also from the intensification of
convection in ascent regions as well as a smaller contribution from
cloud changes in convective margins.