Obolodiplosis robiniae Will Infect All Black Locust In Eurasia Under
Climate Change
Abstract
Obolodiplosis robiniae was discovered in Eurasia at the beginning of the
21st century and was then spread at an explosive rate. Here, we explore
the current and future (in years 2050 and 2070) trends in the potential
distribution of O. robiniae in Eurasia under diverse climate change
scenarios based on a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. Our results showed
that the current potential distribution area of O. robiniae is within
the range of 21.58°-65.66°N in the Eurasian continent. The total current
potential distribution (CPD) area of O. robiniae in Eurasia was
10,896,309.16 km2 , with suitable areas covering a substantial section
of Europe. The Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1), Annual Precipitation
(Bio12), and the Precipitation of the Driest Month (Bio14) are the most
important bioclimatic variables determining the potential distribution
of O. robiniae. The future area suitable for habitat of O. robiniae is
characterized by a large-scale northward expansion trend with
temperature elevation. The marginally suitable and highly suitable areas
would thus increase, whereas the southern appropriate areas would
shrink. Under the SSP585 scenario, in 2070, the suitable area of O.
robiniae would be the largest, up to 14,696,253.77 km2, which is 34.87%
more than the current suitable area. This information would facilitate
the provision of early warning on the potential distribution areas of O.
robiniae issued by the forestry quarantine departments of Asian and
European countries and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and
control of O. robiniae spread and outbreaks.