Understanding Uncertainty in Ecological Forecasts (Forecasts & Uncertainty)
This module introduces students to concepts and methods for quantifying forecast uncertainty, which entails identifying the range of possible future model outcomes (Dietze 2017b). Students build simple linear models to forecast water temperature at a NEON lake site of their choice and calculate the uncertainty associated with the forecasts. Seehttp://module6.macrosystemseddie.org for a detailed description of the module; module code for the R Shiny application and RMarkdown as well as instructor materials are also published with DOIs in Moore et al. (2023b), Moore et al. (2023c), and Moore et al. (2023a), respectively.