Relative Entropy-Based Global Sensitivity Analysis in a Complex 1D-2D
Coupled Hydrodynamic Flood Modeling System
Abstract
Hydrodynamic flood modeling is computationally complex and
data-intensive. The accuracy of the flood model outputs is extremely
sensitive towards the quality of input parameters. These input
parameters are static (mostly geomorphic) and dynamic (mostly
hydrometeorological). Sensitivity analysis helps to identify the
importance of each input and subsequently improves model accuracy. In
various past studies, the sensitivity of only dynamic input parameters
was highlighted. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis was limited to
flooding of the channel (1D) or floodplain (2D) but never coupled. The
present study focuses on developing a framework for global sensitivity
analysis of static input parameters in a 1D-2D coupled hydrodynamic
flood model, based on HEC-RAS, an open-source flood modeler developed by
the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. A set of numerical experiments was
conducted in the model by perturbing the static input parameters from
their standard or surveyed values to generate flow hydrographs. The
Kullback-Leibler entropy was used as a metric to quantify sensitivity
and was calculated by comparing non-parametric probability density
functions (PDFs) of the river discharge at different locations. A
Gaussian kernel PDF is found most appropriate in a goodness of fit test
than other distributions. A highly flood-prone and densely populated
river catchment of the Ganges basin in India, which suffers economic and
life losses every monsoon, was selected to demonstrate the proposed
framework. This study is the first attempt at a global sensitivity
analysis in a 1D-2D coupled flood modeling system, concluding that the
sensitivity of static input parameters is highly dynamic, and their
importance varies spatially from u/s to d/s of the river. However, the
channel roughness and land use classes were found significantly
sensitive throughout the river. It is suggested that a flood modeling
exercise should accompany a global sensitivity analysis, which will
guide flood modelers to identify the sensitive input parameters that one
should emphasize during data collection and application. Such effort
ensures improved accuracy of the static input parameters resulting in
better accuracy of the outputs. The proposed framework is generic and
can be implemented for any river catchment prior to flood hazard and
risk analyses.