Time-series analysis of extreme rainfall and flood events in two water
catchments of Eastern New South Wales shows an indicative link to
Gleissberg 87 yr cycles
Abstract
Two sites in adjacent catchments located in eastern NSW provide
hydrological data over 200 years since European settlement: (a) height
of the Hawkesbury River at Windsor, within the Sydney Basin (HR); (b)
level of the ephemeral Lake George, sited 100 km inland (LG). HR has
experienced 43 moderate to major floods since 1799 with the timing of
floods grouping into approximate 40-year segments of greater or lesser
flood frequency. LG has a reconstructed history of annual levels (Short
et al, 2020) which shows obvious spacings with range 50 to 80 years.
Three features are clear. The close correlation in time between HR
floods, and the deep LG records, in separate hydrological catchments,
suggests that these were not random occurrences. The sunspot record
shows clear correlation in timing of occurrence (but not of amplitudes)
of anomalously weak sunspot maxima with high rainfall/flood-prone
segments. High sunspot maxima are associated with dryer 40 yr segments.
Both datasets yield meaningful spectra via Lomb-Scargle spectral
analysis (the data lengths being too short for reliable Fourier
spectra). These power spectra show maxima at periods 82-88 yr (HR) and
80 yr (LG). Subsidiary peaks at periods 50, 30, 20and 11 yr appear on
both. These peaks align with the first three of the six named
periodicities in solar activity; the Schwabe(11yr); Hale (22yr) and the
Gleissberg (87 yr) periodicities. These three periodicities are present
in the sunspot record from1609 CE, and in the cosmogenic (Be and C )
record of the past 50+ kyr where high sunspot activity correlates with
low cosmic radiation and high total solar insolation (TSI). In
particular HR for 1810-20 CE and LG for 1819-20 CE coincide with the
last portion of the sunspot Dalton Minimum, the last of the “Little Ice
Ages” experienced worldwide. The timing of HR floods correlates closely
with La Nina events, and a subset correlates with solar cycle
terminators described by Leamon et al (2021). We believe it is
significant that a subset of terminators associated with dryer segments
also approximate a pattern consistent with the 87 yr Gleissberg cycle.
We conclude that just as solar cycle terminators appear to have
predictive value for La Nina events, recognition of the Gleissberg cycle
may have predictive value for ~80 yr cycles of
flood-prone and drought-prone times.