Systematic Identification of the Drivers of Regional Hydroclimate
Variability in Southern Hemispheric Wet Seasons using a Causal Discovery
Method
Abstract
We analyze the drivers of hydroclimate variability in northeast Brazil
and southeast Australia using a causal discovery algorithm (CDA). The
CDA-based regression models are also generated to assess the predictive
skills of this approach. Hydroclimate variability is quantified using
the standardized precipitation index and standardized precipitation
evapotranspiration index with different time-scales. The CDA highlights
the influences of the tropical Atlantic and tropical Pacific on droughts
in northeast Brazil. Droughts in southeast Australia are connected to
the tropical Pacific and Southern Annual mode. For drought indices with
long time-scales, the indices themselves are involved as drivers of
hydroclimate conditions reflecting the persistence of long-lasting wet
or dry events. The performance of the CDA-based prediction models
increases with the time-scales of drought indices and decreases with the
lead times of prediction. Overall, our analysis shows the usefulness of
CDA to identify causal links in the regional hydroclimate in the
southern Hemisphere.