Data assimilation for fault slip monitoring and short-term prediction of
slow slip events: an application to the 2010 long-term slow slip event
in the Bungo Channel
Abstract
Monitoring and predicting fault slip behaviors in subduction zones are
essential for understanding earthquake cycles and assessing future
earthquake potential. We developed a data assimilation (DA) method for
fault slip monitoring and short-term prediction of slow slip events
(SSEs), which was applied to the 2010 Bungo Channel SSE in southwest
Japan. The observed geodetic data were quantitatively explained using a
physics-based model with DA. We investigated short-term predictability
by assimilating observation data with limited periods. Without prior
constraint on fault slip style, observations solely during slip
acceleration predicted the occurrence of a fast slip; however, the
inclusion of slip deceleration data successfully predicted a slow
transient slip. With prior constraint to exclude unstable slip, the
assimilation of data after the SSE occurrence predicted a slow transient
slip. This study provided a tool using DA for fault slip monitoring and
prediction based on real observation data.