The Impacts of Global Warming on Climate Zone Changes over Asia based on
CMIP6 Projections
Abstract
It is challenging to estimate how the regional climate will be shifted
under future global warming. To reduce the potential risk of regional
climate shift under future climates, examining the change in climate
features over Asia is important, as approximately 60 percent of the
world’s population resides there. In this study, climate shifts are
assessed over the Asian monsoon region under global mean temperature
warming targets from 1.5 °C to 5.0 °C above preindustrial (PI) levels
based on different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. Global
warming impacts the individual climate variables, and consequently, it
impacts the regional climate features across the Asia region.
Temperature change patterns are more dominant contributors to the
spatial extent and magnitude of climate shifts than precipitation change
patterns. Changes in regional climates show different behaviors
according to the degree of global warming rather than the type of SSP
scenario. Climate shifts are intensified under a higher level of global
warming that is above the PI levels. The largest climate shifts in this
region are shown under global warming of 5.0 °C based on the SSP5-8.5
scenario, especially in current polar climate zones. Future change
patterns in individual climate zone can differ. Regions with tropical
climates and arid climates are likely to be expanded, whereas some
regions with warm temperate climates, cold climates, and polar climates
are likely to shrink under global warming conditions. Therefore, this
study supports the necessity of mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions and establishing an adaptation plan for future global warming
conditions.