Although natural disturbances such as wildfire, extreme weather events, and insect outbreaks play a key role in structuring ecosystems and watersheds worldwide, climate change has intensified many disturbance regimes, which can have compounding negative effects on ecosystem processes and services. Recent studies have highlighted the need to understand whether wildfire increases or decreases after large-scale beetle outbreaks. However, observational studies have produced mixed results. To address this, we applied a coupled ecohydrological-fire regime-beetle effects model (RHESSys-WMFire-Beetle) in a semiarid watershed in the western US. We found that surface fire probability and fire size decreased in the red phase (0-5 years post-outbreak), increased in the gray phase (6-15 years post-outbreak), and depended on mortality level in the old phase (one to several decades post-outbreak). In the gray and old phases, surface fire size and probability did not respond to low levels of beetle-caused mortality (<=20%), increased during medium levels of mortality (>20% and <=50%), and remained elevated but did not change with mortality (during the gray phase) or decreased (during the old phase) when mortality was high (>50%). Wildfire responses also depended on fire regime. In fuel-limited locations, fire typically increased with increasing fuel loads, whereas in fuel-abundant (flammability-limited) systems, fire sometimes decreased due to decreases in fuel aridity. This modeling framework can improve our understanding of the mechanisms driving wildfire responses and aid managers in predicting when and where fire hazards will increase.