Process-based climate model development harnessing machine learning:
III. The Representation of Cumulus Geometry and their 3D Radiative
Effects
Abstract
Process-scale development, evaluation and calibration of
physically-based parameterizations are key to improve weather and
climate models. Cloud–radiation interactions are a central issue
because of their major role in global energy balance and climate
sensitivity. In a series of papers, we propose papers a strategy for
process-based calibration of climate models that uses machine learning
techniques. It relies on systematic comparisons of single-column
versions of climate models with explicit simulations of boundary-layer
clouds (LES). Parts I and II apply this framework to the calibration of
boundary layer parameters targeting first boundary layer characteristics
and then global radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere. This
third part focuses on the calibration of cloud geometry parameters that
appear in the parameterization of radiation. The solar component of a
radiative transfer scheme (ecRad) is run in offline single-column mode
on input cloud profiles synthesized from an ensemble of LES outputs. A
recent version of ecRad that includes explicit representation of the
effects of cloud geometry and horizontal transport is evaluated and
calibrated by comparing radiative metrics to reference values provided
by Monte Carlo 3D radiative transfer computations. Errors on TOA,
surface and absorbed fluxes estimated by ecRad are computed for an
ensemble of cumulus fields. The average root-mean-square error can be
less than 5 Wm$^{-2}$ provided that 3D effects are represented
and that cloud geometry parameters are well calibrated. A key result is
that configurations using calibrated parameters yield better predictions
than those using parameter values diagnosed in the LES fields.