A space-time Bayesian Hierarchical modeling approach for streamflow
extremes in the Krishna River basin of South India
Abstract
Hydroclimate extreme events, especially precipitation and streamflow,
pose serious threats to life, livelihoods, and infrastructure. However,
the extremes exhibit significant space-time variability and in
conjunction with societal vulnerability and resiliency, resulting in
varying levels of damage. Regardless, robust understanding and modeling
of these extremes is crucial for effective hazard mitigation strategies.
For this study, we focus on the Krishna River Basin in south India,
which experiences flooding each year due to monsoon rains and impacts
urban and rural communities along its network covering three States. We
implement a Bayesian hierarchical model to capture the spatio-temporal
variability of streamflow extremes on this river network. In this model,
the extremes (3-day maximum seasonal flow) at each station are assumed
to follow a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution with
non-stationary parameters. The parameters are modeled as a linear
function of suitable covariates. In addition, the spatial dependence of
the streamflow extremes is modeled via a Gaussian copula. With suitable
priors on the parameters, posterior distribution of the parameters and
the predictive posterior distribution of streamflow (i.e., ensembles) at
each location. Consequently, various return levels can also be obtained
from these ensembles. We developed and tested the model on the monsoon
seasonal 3-day max flow at 10-gauge stations for the period 1973 -2015.
To find the covariates, we perform analysis to identify relationships
between large-scale climate variables such as Sea Surface Temperatures,
850 mb winds, Sea Level Pressure, etc. Statistical learning methods will
be employed for this analysis and as a result, obtain potential
covariates that best relate to streamflow extremes in the basin. This
modeling approach can be adapted to the seasonal and multidecadal
projection of extremes, which will greatly help disaster mitigation
planning efforts.