Abstract
Low seasonal precipitation and high demand for water use for
agriculture, mining, industry, power generation and human consumption
have made water resources management a concern in the Arequipa Region of
Peru, which may be worse under future climate projections. In this
study, the hydrologic response to climate change is evaluated within the
Quilca-Vitor-Chili River Basin in the Arequipa Region of Peru. The Soil
and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to develop a watershed model
based on topographical, land cover, soil, and climatic (precipitation
and temperature) data, while taking into account anthropogenic
inter-basin transfers. The model is calibrated and validated for current
conditions. Three climate scenarios derived from Atmosphere-Ocean
General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations for both Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 are obtained from the NASA
Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset.
Surface runoff and water yield associated with future climate scenarios
are calculated for two near (2010-2039) and far (2040-2069) futures.
Results of this study will provide a guideline for developing water
policy in the region in order to mitigate negative impacts of climate
variations in the region.