Transient simulation of climate variability during the Last Glacial
Maximum and the Holocene with an energy balance climate model
Abstract
Projected changes in climate are likely to affect not only its mean
state but also its variability. As such, improving our understanding of
the spectrum of climate variability and how different feedbacks in the
climate system influence it is of vital importance. We perform a
process-based examination of variability with respect to changing
orbital insulation, ice coverage, and land/sea distribution during the
Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene. To this end, we adapt a
two-dimensional energy balance model [Zhuang, North & Stevens,
2017] to run transient simulations. The model is forced by carbon
dioxide and solar insolation changes for the last Glacial cycle. We
evaluate the model’s ability to reproduce changes in local to global,
seasonal to millennial temperature distributions during the Last Glacial
Maximum and the Holocene. We compare the simulated states and the
transient evolution to those obtained by comprehensive coupled climate
models. Finally, we test the mean-state dependence of temperature
variability over a large range of model configurations and discuss
implications for future climate.