loading page

Numerical simulations of the geospace response to the arrival of a perfect interplanetary coronal mass ejection
  • +2
  • Daniel Welling,
  • Jeffrey Love,
  • E. Joshua Rigler,
  • Denny Oliveira,
  • Colin Komar
Daniel Welling
University of Texas at Arlington Department of Physics, Arlington, Texas, United States

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Jeffrey Love
Geomagnetism Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States
Author Profile
E. Joshua Rigler
gnetism Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States
Author Profile
Denny Oliveira
Goddard Planetary Heliophysics Institute, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, USA
Author Profile
Colin Komar
The Catholic University of America, Washington DC, USA
Author Profile

Abstract

Understanding extreme space weather events in terms of the geospace response is a critical step towards protecting vulnerable technological infrastructure. This is particularly relevant for the effects of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) on ground-based power grids, which can be approximated by examining the rate of change of the surface magnetic field, $dB/dt$. In a previous study, \citet{Tsurutani2014} created estimates for a perfect, isolated interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) and performed a simple calculation for the response of geospace, including $dB/dt$. In this study, the estimates of \citet{Tsurutani2014} are used to drive a coupled magnetohydrodynamic (MHD)-ring current-ionosphere model of geospace to obtain more detailed and physically accurate estimates of the geospace response to such an ICME. The sudden impulse phase is examined; calculations of surface $dB/dt$, Dst index, and day side magnetopause compression are compared to the less sophisticated estimations of \citet{Tsurutani2014}. It is found that while the previous study yielded similar estimates for Dst rise and magnetopause compression, $dB/dt$ estimates are as much as an order of magnitude lower than the results obtained via physics-based modeling. This work shows that $dB/dt$ values in excess of 30$nT/s$ are found as low as 40$^{\circ}$ magnetic latitude. It is also shown that the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field plays a critical role: under southward IMF conditions, magnetopause erosion combines with strong region 1 Birkeland currents to intensify the $dB/dt$ response. The values obtained here surpass those found in real-world events and sets the bar for the upper threshold of extreme GIC activity at Earth.