Numerical simulations of the geospace response to the arrival of a
perfect interplanetary coronal mass ejection
Abstract
Understanding extreme space weather events in terms of the geospace
response is a critical step towards protecting vulnerable technological
infrastructure. This is particularly relevant for the effects of
geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) on ground-based power grids,
which can be approximated by examining the rate of change of the surface
magnetic field, $dB/dt$. In a previous study,
\citet{Tsurutani2014} created estimates for a perfect,
isolated interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) and performed a
simple calculation for the response of geospace, including $dB/dt$. In
this study, the estimates of \citet{Tsurutani2014} are
used to drive a coupled magnetohydrodynamic (MHD)-ring
current-ionosphere model of geospace to obtain more detailed and
physically accurate estimates of the geospace response to such an ICME.
The sudden impulse phase is examined; calculations of surface $dB/dt$,
Dst index, and day side magnetopause compression are compared to the
less sophisticated estimations of
\citet{Tsurutani2014}. It is found that while the
previous study yielded similar estimates for Dst rise and magnetopause
compression, $dB/dt$ estimates are as much as an order of magnitude
lower than the results obtained via physics-based modeling. This work
shows that $dB/dt$ values in excess of 30$nT/s$ are found as low as
40$^{\circ}$ magnetic latitude. It is also shown
that the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field plays a critical
role: under southward IMF conditions, magnetopause erosion combines with
strong region 1 Birkeland currents to intensify the $dB/dt$ response.
The values obtained here surpass those found in real-world events and
sets the bar for the upper threshold of extreme GIC activity at Earth.