Abstract
Although observations and modelling studies show that heavy rainfall is
increasing in many regions, how changes will manifest themselves on
sub-daily timescales remains highly uncertain. Here, for the first time,
we combine observational analysis and high-resolution modelling results
to examine changes to extreme rainfall intensities in urbanized Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia. We find that hourly intensities of extreme rainfall
have increased by ~35% over the last three decades,
nearly three times more than in surrounding rural areas, with daily
intensities showing much weaker increases. Our modelling results confirm
that the urban heat island effect creates a more unstable atmosphere,
increased vertical uplift and moisture convergence. This, combined with
weak surface winds in the Tropics, causes intensification of rainfall
extremes over the city, with reduced rainfall in the surrounding region.