Natural carbon release compensates for anthropogenic carbon uptake when
Southern Hemispheric westerlies strengthen
Abstract
The Southern Ocean (SO) provides the largest oceanic sink of carbon.
Observational datasets highlight decadal-scale changes in SO CO2 uptake,
but the processes leading to this decadal-scale variability remain
debated. Here, using an eddy-permitting ocean, sea-ice, carbon cycle
model, we explore the impact of changes in Southern Hemisphere (SH)
westerlies on contemporary (i.e. total), anthropogenic and natural CO2
fluxes using idealised sensitivity experiments as well as an
interannually varying forced (IAF) experiment covering the years 1948 to
2007. We find that a strengthening of the SH westerlies reduces the
contemporary CO2 uptake by leading to a high southern latitude natural
CO2 outgassing. The enhanced SO upwelling and associated increase in
Antarctic Bottom Water decrease the carbon content at depth in the SO,
and increase the transport of carbon-rich waters to the surface. A
poleward shift of the westerlies particularly enhances the CO2
outgassing south of 60S, while inducing an asymmetrical DIC response
between high and mid southern latitudes. Changes in the SH westerlies in
the 20th century in the IAF experiment lead to decadal-scale variability
in both natural and contemporary CO2 fluxes. The ~10%
strengthening of the SH westerlies since the 1980s led to a 0.016
GtC/yr^2 decrease in natural CO2 uptake, while the anthropogenic CO2
uptake increased at a similar rate, thus leading to a stagnation of the
total SO CO2 uptake. The projected poleward strengthening of the SH
westerlies over the coming century will thus reduce the capability of
the SO to mitigate the increase in atmospheric CO2.