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Natural carbon release compensates for anthropogenic carbon uptake when Southern Hemispheric westerlies strengthen
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  • Laurie Menviel,
  • Darryn W. Waugh,
  • Paul Spence,
  • Matt Chamberlain,
  • Veronique Lago,
  • Zhi Li,
  • Matthew H. England
Laurie Menviel
University of New South Wales

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Darryn W. Waugh
Johns Hopkins University
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Paul Spence
CCRC UNSW
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Matt Chamberlain
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
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Veronique Lago
CCRC, UNSW
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Zhi Li
CCRC, UNSW
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Matthew H. England
University of New South Wales
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Abstract

The Southern Ocean (SO) provides the largest oceanic sink of carbon. Observational datasets highlight decadal-scale changes in SO CO2 uptake, but the processes leading to this decadal-scale variability remain debated. Here, using an eddy-permitting ocean, sea-ice, carbon cycle model, we explore the impact of changes in Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerlies on contemporary (i.e. total), anthropogenic and natural CO2 fluxes using idealised sensitivity experiments as well as an interannually varying forced (IAF) experiment covering the years 1948 to 2007. We find that a strengthening of the SH westerlies reduces the contemporary CO2 uptake by leading to a high southern latitude natural CO2 outgassing. The enhanced SO upwelling and associated increase in Antarctic Bottom Water decrease the carbon content at depth in the SO, and increase the transport of carbon-rich waters to the surface. A poleward shift of the westerlies particularly enhances the CO2 outgassing south of 60S, while inducing an asymmetrical DIC response between high and mid southern latitudes. Changes in the SH westerlies in the 20th century in the IAF experiment lead to decadal-scale variability in both natural and contemporary CO2 fluxes. The ~10% strengthening of the SH westerlies since the 1980s led to a 0.016 GtC/yr^2 decrease in natural CO2 uptake, while the anthropogenic CO2 uptake increased at a similar rate, thus leading to a stagnation of the total SO CO2 uptake. The projected poleward strengthening of the SH westerlies over the coming century will thus reduce the capability of the SO to mitigate the increase in atmospheric CO2.