Uncertainty in Estimates of Net Seasonal Snow Accumulation on Glacier
from In Situ Measurements
Abstract
Accurately estimating the net seasonal snow accumulation (or “winter
balance”) on glaciers is central to assessing glacier health and
predicting glacier runoff. However, measuring and modeling snow
distribution is inherently difficult in mountainous terrain, resulting
in high uncertainties in estimates of winter balance. Our work focuses
on uncertainty attribution within the process of converting direct
measurements of snow depth and density to estimates of winter balance.
We collected more than 9000 direct measurements of snow depth across
three glaciers in the St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, Canada in May 2016.
Linear regression (LR) and simple kriging (SK), combined with cross
correlation and Bayesian model averaging, are used to interpolate
estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) from snow depth and density
measurements. Snow distribution patterns are found to differ
considerably between glaciers, highlighting strong inter- and
intra-basin variability. Elevation is found to be the dominant control
of the spatial distribution of SWE, but the relationship varies
considerably between glaciers. A simple parameterization of wind
redistribution is also a small but statistically significant predictor
of SWE. The SWE estimated for one study glacier has a short range
parameter (90 m) and both LR and SK estimate a winter balance of
~0.6 m w.e. but are poor predictors of SWE at
measurement locations. The other two glaciers have longer SWE range
parameters (~450 m) and due to differences in
extrapolation, SK estimates are more than 0.1 m w.e. (up to 40%) lower
than LR estimates. By using a Monte Carlo method to quantify the effects
of various sources of uncertainty, we find that the interpolation of
estimated values of SWE is a larger source of uncertainty than the
assignment of snow density or than the representation of the SWE value
within a terrain model grid cell. For our study glaciers, the total
winter balance uncertainty ranges from 0.03 (8%) to 0.15 (54%) m w.e.
depending primarily on the interpolation method. Despite the challenges
associated with accurately and precisely estimating winter balance, our
results are consistent with the previously reported regional
accumulation gradient.