Projected Global Temperature Changes after Net Zero are Small but
Significant
- Alexander R Borowiak,
- Andrew David King,
- Josephine R. Brown,
- Christopher David Jones,
- Tilo Ziehn,
- Malte Alexander Meinshausen,
- Liam Cassidy
Tilo Ziehn
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Author ProfileAbstract
As more countries make net zero greenhouse gas emissions pledges, it is
crucial to understand the effects on global climate after achieving net
zero emissions. The climate has been found to continue to evolve even
after the abrupt cessation of CO2 emissions, with some models simulating
a small warming and others simulating a small cooling. In this study, we
analyse if the temperature and precipitation changes post abrupt
cessation of CO2 emissions are significant compared to natural climate
variations. We find that the temperature changes are outside of natural
variability for most models, whilst the precipitation changes are mostly
non-significant. We also demonstrate that post-net zero temperature
changes have implications for the remaining carbon budget. The
possibility of further global warming post-net zero adds to the evidence
supporting more rapid emissions reductions in the near-term.22 Feb 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive 27 Feb 2024Published in ESS Open Archive