How can Distributed Hydrological Models Inform Decision Making?
Multi-Site Calibration of SWAT for a Large Brazilian River Basin
Abstract
Although there are numerous modeling tools available for managing water
resources, they tend to focus on relatively small watersheds
(<25,000 km2) and evidence is scarce
regarding their applications to large watershed management and planning.
The use of hydrological modeling tools in decision making is
particularly challenging in large tropical countries such as Brazil.
Here we tailored and customized SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)
calibration, validation and sensitivity analysis for large Brazilian
watersheds (>25,000 km2). Our results
show that customized SWAT calibrations successfully simulated flow
behaviors across the Rio das Velhas basin, which contains heterogeneous
landforms and land uses. The multisite calibration method was adopted
because of the large basin area and the availability of flow monitoring
stations. As a result of the multi-site calibration, specific
regionalized parameters were obtained for each group of sub-basins. Our
results showed a good adjustment of the model. NS (Nash & Sutcliffe
coefficient) values were 0.73 - 0.97 (calibration) and 0.51 - 0.98
(validation). PBIAS (% bias) was 11.3 to 19.4 (calibration) and -18.6
to 24.6 (validation) and R² values were >0.6 in all
sub-basins. We conclude that hydrological models coupled with GIS
facilitates simulating complex hydrological processes and can improve
decision making by Brazilian water resource managers.