Global Monsoon Changes with Specific Warming Levels in Two
Large-Ensemble Simulations
Abstract
Projection of the global monsoon (GM) system is essential for water
resource management, food security, and policymaking. Here we
investigate projected changes in global monsoon area (GMA) and global
monsoon intensity (GMI) with specific global warming levels, using two
datasets of large-ensemble simulations. Both datasets project
quasi-linear increases in GMA and GMI with global warming. The GMI over
Northern-Hemisphere continents is consistently enhanced, while the GMI
over Southern-Hemisphere continents are dominated by opposite changes in
the GMI over South America. In addition, both datasets show enhanced
monsoon intensity over most parts of regional monsoon domains, except
for the North American monsoon. The different changes of the North
American monsoon are up on projected temperature differences between the
equatorial eastern Pacific and the tropical Atlantic. Moisture budget
shows that the thermodynamic component always makes a large positive
contribution to the increase in monsoon precipitation, while evaporation
has a smaller positive contribution, except for the East Asian monsoon.
The contribution of the dynamic component shows large differences for
different regional monsoons. Therefore, the different changes in
regional monsoon precipitation are mainly caused by the dynamic
component.