Modeling the Water Systems of the Western US to Support
Climate-Resilient Electricity System Planning
Abstract
Electricity and water systems in the Western US (WUS) are closely
connected, with hydropower comprising up to 80% of generation, and
electricity related to water comprising up to 20% of electricity use in
certain states. Because of these interdependencies, the serious threat
of climate change to WUS resources will likely have compounding
electricity impacts, yet water system models rarely estimate energy
implications, especially at the geographic scale of the expansive WUS
water and electricity networks. This study, therefore, develops a
WUS-wide water system model with a particular emphasis on estimating
climate impacts on hydropower generation and water-related energy use,
which can be linked with a grid expansion model to support
climate-resilient electricity planning. The water system model combines
climatically-driven physical hydrology and management of both water
supply and demand allocation, and is applied to an ensemble of 15
climate scenarios out to 2050. Model results show decreasing streamflow
in key basins of the WUS under most scenarios. Annual electricity use
related to water increases up to 4%, driven by growing agricultural
demand and shifts to energy-intensive groundwater to replace declining
surface water. Total annual hydropower generation changes by +5% to
-20% by mid-century, but declines in most scenarios. Energy use
increases coincide with hydropower generation declines, suggesting
additional energy capacity may be needed to achieve WUS grid reliability
and decarbonization goals, and demonstrating the importance of
concurrently evaluating the climate signal on both water-for-energy and
energy-for-water.