A lockdown was implemented in Canada mid-March 2020 to limit the spread of COVID-19. In the wake of this, declines in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were observed from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). A method is presented to quantify how much of this decrease is due to the lockdown itself as opposed to variability in meteorology and satellite sampling. The operational air quality forecast model, GEM-MACH, was used with TROPOMI to determine expected NO2 columns that represents what TROPOMI would have observed for a non-COVID scenario. Decreases in NO2 due to the lockdown were seen across southern Ontario, with an average 40% in Toronto and even larger declines in the city center. Natural and satellite sampling variability accounted for as much as 20-30%. A model run using a lockdown emissions scenario were found to be consistent with TROPOMI suggesting the prescribed declines in transportation and industry emissions are reasonable.