Long-term temperature impacts of the Hunga volcanic eruption in the
stratosphere and above
Abstract
Global average upper atmosphere temperature changes linked with the
Hunga volcanic eruption (January 2022) are analyzed based on satellite
measurements and compared with chemistry-climate model simulations.
Results show stratospheric cooling of -0.5 to -1.0 K in the middle and
upper stratosphere during 2022 through middle 2023, followed by stronger
cooling (-1.0 to -2.0 K) in the mesosphere after middle 2023. The
cooling patterns follow the upward propagating water vapor (H2O)
anomalies from Hunga, and similar behavior is found between observations
and model simulations. While the stratospheric cooling is mainly due to
radiative cooling from enhanced H2O, the mesospheric temperature changes
result from ozone losses in the mesosphere, which are in-turn driven by
HOx radicals from Hunga H2O. Comparisons with the multi-decade climate
record show that Hunga impacts on stratospheric temperatures have
similar magnitude, but opposite sign, to temperature effects from the
large El Chichón (1982) and Pinatubo (1991) volcanic eruptions.