Machine learning emulator for physics-based prediction of ionospheric
response to solar wind variations
Abstract
Physics-based simulations are important for elucidating the fundamental
mechanisms behind the time-varying complex ionospheric conditions, such
as field-aligned currents (FACs) and plasma convection patterns, against
unprecedented solar wind variations incidents in the Earth’s
magnetosphere. However, to perform a huge parameter survey for
understanding the nonlinear solar wind density dependence of the FAC and
convection patterns, for example, a large-scale cluster computer is not
fast enough to run state-of-the-art global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD)
simulations. Here we report the impressive performance of a
machine-learning based surrogate model for the ionospheric outputs of a
global MHD simulation, using the reservoir computing technique called
echo state network (ESN). The trained ESN-based emulator is
exceptionally fast to perform the parameter survey, suggesting a missing
solar wind density dependence of the ionospheric polar cap potential. We
discuss future directions including the promising application for the
space weather forecast.