Colder eastern equatorial Pacific and stronger Walker cell in the early
21st century: isolating the forced response to global warming
Abstract
Since the early 1990s the Pacific Walker circulation shows a
multi-decadal strengthening, contradicting future model projections.
Whether this trend, evident in a range of indices especially before the
2015 El Niño, reflects the coupled ocean-atmosphere response to global
warming or the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
remains debated. Here we show that sea surface temperature (SST) trends
during 1980-2020 are dominated by three signals: a spatially uniform
warming trend, a negative PDO pattern, and a Northern
Hemisphere/Indo-West Pacific warming pattern. The latter pattern, which
closely resembles the transient ocean thermostat-like response to global
warming emerging in a subset of CMIP6 models, shows cooling in the
central-eastern Pacific but warming in the western Pacific and tropical
Indian ocean. This pattern contributes to the Walker circulation
strengthening along with the PDO. Historical simulations appear to
underestimate this pattern, contributing to the models’ inability to
replicate the Walker cell strengthening.