The state of the atmosphere throughout the seasons: how well can
atmospheric models explain infrasound observations at regional distances
Abstract
Over the past two decades the German Aerospace Center facility near
Heilbronn, Germany, has conducted a considerable number of tests of the
ARIANE-5 main rocket engine. From the 159 studied tests a large portion
(~45%) was detected at IMS infrasound station IS26 in
the Bavarian forest, located at a distance of about 320 km in an
eastward direction (99° clockwise from North). Observations were mostly
made during the winter season between October and April with a detection
rate of more than 70%, as stratospheric winds then favour atmospheric
infrasound propagation within a stratospheric duct. For the summer
season the reversal of middle atmospheric wind patterns generally
inhibits signal detections, as is found by comparisons of numerical
weather prediction models. A significant portion of non-detection cases
during winter, however, also exhibit a sound speed profile that should
enable infrasound signal observations due to the presence of a
stratospheric duct. Using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecast (ECMWF) atmospheric model analysis and infrasound propagation
modelling it was found that about two-thirds can be explained by the
existence of a shadow zone near the station. For one third of the cases,
however, such a shadow zone does not exist and it must be concluded that
the applied atmospheric model is more often than expected unable to
correctly explain infrasound propagation to regional distances, as has
been found in previous studies.