The Moderate Size September 2019 Mw5.8 Silivri Earthquake Unveils the
Complexity of the Main Marmara Fault Shear Zone
Abstract
The unbroken section of the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of
Marmara is a major source of seismic hazard for the city of İstanbul.
The northern and currently the most active branch, the Main Marmara
Fault (MMF), is segmented within a shear zone and exhibits both
partially creeping and locked behavior along its 150 km length. In
September 2019, a seismic activity initiated near MMF, off-coast the
town of Silivri, generating 14 earthquakes > Mw3.5 in a
week. The Mw5.8 Silivri earthquake, is the largest in the Marmara Sea
since the 1963 Mw6.3 Çınarcık earthquake. Our analyses reveal that the
activity started in a narrow zone (~100 m) and spread to
~7 km following an Mw4.7 foreshock within
~2 days. The distribution of relocated aftershocks and
the focal mechanisms computed from regional waveforms reveal that the
Mw5.8 earthquake did not occur on the MMF, but it ruptured
~60 degree north-dipping oblique strike-slip fault with
significant thrust component located on the north of the MMF.
Finite-fault slip model of the mainshock shows 8 km long rupture with
directivity toward east, where the ruptured fault merges to the MMF. The
narrow depth range of the slip distribution (10-13 km) and the
aftershock zone imply that the causative fault is below the deep
sedimentary cover of the Marmara Basin. The distribution of aftershocks
of he Mw5.8 event is consistent with Coulomb stress increase. The stress
changes along MMF include zones of both stress decrease due to clamping
and right-lateral slip, and stress increase due to loading.