Abstract
Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) can detect patterns that are
otherwise difficult to identify and have been shown to excel in
predicting fault characteristics in laboratory shear experiments and
slow slip \emph{in situ}. Here we show that a suitably
designed CNN can be trained to identify some precursory change in the
seismic signal preceding some large natural earthquakes by up to a few
hours, with a variable success rate. We use 65
$\textrm{M}_w\geq 6$ events in the NE
pacific in and around Japan from 2012 to 2022. By repeating the
training/testing cycle with variable random initial weights, we obtained
up to 98\% in training accuracy and 96\%
in testing accuracy in discriminating noise and precursor windows. In
the $\sim 3$ hours preceding the earthquakes, the
network identifies precursors progressively more frequently as
earthquake time approaches. A final subset of more recent seismic events
was used for a further verification, with mixed results. While the
network appears to differentiate noise and precursor with a
statistically positive incidence, the results are highly variable
depending on the events that are analysed, with poor potential for
generalisation. This may indicate that not all earthquakes in the
catalog contain precursor signals, or at least no signal similar to the
training subset. Discriminative features between precursor and noise
windows appear most dominant over a frequency range of
$\approx$ 0.1-0.9 Hz (in particular
$\approx$0.16 and $\approx$0.21 Hz)
broadly coinciding with observations made elsewhere of microseismic
noise and broadband slow earthquake signal
\cite{masuda_bridging_2020}.