Abstract
Water security hinges on water storage. Although the public and water
resources planners habitually look to surface reservoirs for storage
solutions, by far the largest ‘space’ to store water is underground. The
very nature of freshwater distribution on Earth foreshadows future water
storage solutions, as 97% of all circulating freshwater globally is in
groundwater. Similarly, although 140 surface reservoirs in California
can store 52 km3(42 MAF), in the Central Valley aquifer system there is
room for another ~170 km3(~140 MAF)
owing to past depletion. Despite the state’s Mediterranean climate in
which nearly all of the precipitation occurs between November and March
when demand is lowest, historically massive snow storage and
spring-summer snow melt synchronized well with surface reservoir
replenishment during April-July. This system built around snow storage
as a means of mitigating winter flood threats and delaying runoff until
the beginning of the peak demand season is clearly demonstrating
significant vulnerabilities to climate change and drought. Climate
warming has already produced decades of declining snowmelt runoff,
making surface reservoir storage more difficult. Moreover, as
demonstrated during the 2012-16 drought, in the face of droughts longer
than a few years, the surface storage offers inadequate long-term water
security. This fact, the fact that California during pre-development
times of the last millennium experienced far longer droughts, and
ongoing climate change clearly indicate the need for a different
strategy that more fully leverages both surface and subsurface storage.
Kocis and Dahlke (2017) show that increasing winter runoff during wet
and normal years provide enough high-magnitude flows to support a
strategy of diverting flood flows for groundwater storage. This
“flood-MAR” (managed aquifer recharge) approach will require a massive
change in winter water and land management that exploits recharge
opportunities on irrigated farm lands and in areas with suitable soils
and subsurface geology. A case study in the American-Cosumnes Rivers
portion of the Central Valley shows how total system water storage can
be increased dramatically through diversion of high-magnitude flows and
reoperation of both the surface and subsurface reservoirs including
economic incentives.