Solar activity and lunar precessions influence extreme sea-level
variability in the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts
Abstract
Inter-annual sea-level variations of up to 20 mm are superimposed upon
the global average sea-level rise (~3 mm/yr) from
human-caused global warming. These variations affect the degree of
coastal flooding, and related damage, during the highest annual tides.
Along the Atlantic coast of the United States, such inter-annual
sea-level variations have been attributed to several atmospheric and
oceanographic processes. In the present analysis, detrended tide gauge
data isolate inter-annual interannual variations that can be
reconstructed using Fourier analysis of a limited number of coefficients
based on frequencies of lunar orbit ( and precessions) combined with .
Although a causal relationship between such forcings and extreme sea
levels remains elusive, the reconstructions may provide an effective
method for projections of occurrence of extreme sea levels. Two
reconstructions project that anomalously high sea levels may occur in
the late 2020s, mid 2050s, early 2060s, early 2070s and late 2090s.