Analyzing and Monitoring the Impact of Streamflow Drought on
Hydroelectricity Production: A Global-Scale Study
Abstract
Electricity production by hydropower is negatively affected by drought.
To understand, monitor and manage risks of less than normal streamflow
for hydroelectricity production (HP) at the global scale, we developed
an HP model that simulates time series of monthly HP worldwide and thus
enables analyzing and monitoring the impact of drought on HP. The HP
model is based on a new global hydropower database (GHD), containing
8748 geo-localized plant records, and on monthly streamflow values
computed by the global hydrological model WaterGAP. The GHD includes 43
attributes and covers 91.8% of the globally installed capacity. The HP
model can capture the interannual variability of country-scale HP that
was caused by both (de)commissioning of hydropower plants and streamflow
variability. It can also simulate the streamflow drought and its impact
on HP reasonably well. A drought risk analysis for period 1975−2016
revealed the reduction of HP that is exceeded in 1 out of 10 years. 71
out of 134 countries with hydropower suffer from a reduction of more
than 20% of average HP, and 20 countries from a reduction of more than
40%. We suggest four indices for monitoring the drought impact on HP in
grid cells and on total electricity production in countries. These
indices quantify the impact in terms of either relative reduction or
anomaly. Applying the developed HP model, these indices can be included
in global drought monitoring systems and inform stakeholders such as
hydropower producer and national energy agencies about the reduced
energy production due to streamflow drought.