The impact of modified rate of precipitation conversion parameter in the
convective parameterization scheme of operational weather forecast model
(GFS T1534) over Indian summer monsoon region
Abstract
The performance of present operational global forecast system (GFS) at
T1534 (~12.5 km) horizontal resolution with modified
fractional cloud condensate to precipitation conversion parameter in the
simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SAS) convection scheme is evaluated for the
summer monsoon seasons of 2018 and 2019 over the Indian region. The
modified parameter has the form of an exponential decreasing function of
temperature above the freezing level, whereas below the freezing level,
it is constant and similar to default conversion parameter. The results
reveal that the GFS T1534 with modified conversion parameter (EXPT)
shows better fidelity in forecasting the mean summer monsoon rainfall
over the Indian continent region as compared to default GFS T1534
(CTRL). The rainfall probability distribution function analysis
indicates notable improvement in forecasting moderate and heavier
category rainfall in EXPT as compared to CTRL. The improved distribution
of total rainfall is found be contributed by the proper forecasting of
convective and large-scale rainfall in EXPT. It is likely that the
reduced rate of conversion of cloud condensate to convective
precipitation above the freezing level leads to decrease in convective
rainfall, which eventually increases the moisture in the upper level
through detrainment and hence enhancement in large-scale rainfall.
Further, EXPT shows relative improvement in forecasting outgoing
longwave radiation, wind circulation, cloud fraction,
dynamical-thermodynamical processes and moist-convective feedback
through better lower tropospheric moistening over the Indian region.
Finally, various skill score analyses suggest that EXPT shows better
skill in predicting moderate and heavier category rainfall with longer
lead time over the continental India.