The Paris Agreement and climate justice: inequitable impacts of sea
level rise associated with temperature targets
Abstract
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are causing unprecedented changes
to the climate. In 2015, at the United Nations (UN) Conference of the
Parties in Paris, France, countries agreed to limit the global mean
surface temperature (GMST) increase to 2°C above preindustrial levels,
and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. Due to the long-term
irreversibility of sea level rise (SLR), risks to island and coastal
populations are not well encapsulated by the goal of limiting GMST
warming by 2100. This paper reviews and synthesizes the climate justice
implications of temperature targets in light of our increasing
understanding of the spatially variable impact and long temporal
commitment to rising seas. In particular we highlight the impact that
SLR will have on island states and the role of the Alliance of Small
Island States (AOSIS) in UN climate negotiations. As a case study we
review dual impacts from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) under a changing
climate: 1) recent climate and ice sheet modeling shows that Antarctic
melt has the potential to cause rapid SLR with a distinct spatial
pattern leading to AOSIS nations experiencing SLR at least 11% higher
than the global average and up to 33% higher; and 2) future ice sheet
melt will result in a negative feedback on GMST, thus delaying
temperature rise. When considering these impacts in conjunction, justice
concerns associated with the Paris Agreement are exacerbated. This case
study demonstrates that mitigation policies should consider climate
impacts in addition to GMST, particularly sea level rise.