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The Paris Agreement and climate justice: inequitable impacts of sea level rise associated with temperature targets
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  • Shaina Sadai,
  • Regine Spector,
  • Robert M. DeConto,
  • Natalya Gomez
Shaina Sadai
University of Massachusetts Amherst

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Regine Spector
University of Massachusetts Amherst
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Robert M. DeConto
University of Massachusetts Amherst
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Natalya Gomez
McGill University
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Abstract

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are causing unprecedented changes to the climate. In 2015, at the United Nations (UN) Conference of the Parties in Paris, France, countries agreed to limit the global mean surface temperature (GMST) increase to 2°C above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. Due to the long-term irreversibility of sea level rise (SLR), risks to island and coastal populations are not well encapsulated by the goal of limiting GMST warming by 2100. This paper reviews and synthesizes the climate justice implications of temperature targets in light of our increasing understanding of the spatially variable impact and long temporal commitment to rising seas. In particular we highlight the impact that SLR will have on island states and the role of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in UN climate negotiations. As a case study we review dual impacts from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) under a changing climate: 1) recent climate and ice sheet modeling shows that Antarctic melt has the potential to cause rapid SLR with a distinct spatial pattern leading to AOSIS nations experiencing SLR at least 11% higher than the global average and up to 33% higher; and 2) future ice sheet melt will result in a negative feedback on GMST, thus delaying temperature rise. When considering these impacts in conjunction, justice concerns associated with the Paris Agreement are exacerbated. This case study demonstrates that mitigation policies should consider climate impacts in addition to GMST, particularly sea level rise.
Dec 2022Published in Earth's Future volume 10 issue 12. 10.1029/2022EF002940