Predictable changes in extreme sea levels and coastal flood risk due to
nodal and perigean astronomical tidal cycles
Abstract
We demonstrate that long-term tidally-induced changes in extreme sea
levels affect estimates of major flood hazard in a predictable way.
Long-term variations in tides due to the nodal and perigean tidal cycles
influence extreme sea levels at 234 global tide gauges out of a total of
344. Results show regions where the amplitudes of the modulations are
particularly relevant in the 100-year return sea level; the eastern
coast of China, the northwestern and northeastern coasts of Australia,
the northeast coast of Pacific, and the eastern coast of Europe,
reaching up to ~22 cm in western France. We identify
locations that are currently in a positive phase of the modulation and
therefore at a higher risk of flooding, as well as when (year) the next
peak of the nodal/perigean modulations is expected to occur. The timing
of the peak of the modulation is spatially coherent and influenced by
the relative importance of each cycle (nodal or perigee) over the total
amplitude. An evaluation of four locations suggests that the potentially
flooded area in a 100-year event can vary up to ~45%
(in Boston) as a result of the long-term tidal cycles; however, areal
change is often smaller due to local topography and tidal
characteristics (6-13%). We conclude that tidally-modulated changes in
extreme sea levels can alter the potentially inundated area in a
100-year event and that the traditional, fixed 100-year floodplain is
inadequate for describing coastal flood risk.