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\begin{document}

\title{Scenario and Model Dependence of Strategic Solar Climate Intervention in
CESM}



\author[1,1]{John T. Fasullo}%
\author[1,1]{Jadwiga H. Richter}%
\affil[1]{National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)}%


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  \date{May 20, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Model dependence in simulated responses to stratospheric aerosol
injection (SAI) is a major uncertainty surrounding the potential
implementation of this solar climate intervention strategy. We identify
large differences in the aerosol mass latitudinal distributions between
two recently produced climate model SAI large ensembles, despite using
similar climate targets and controller algorithms, with the goal of
understanding the drivers of such differences. Using a hierarchy of
recently produced simulations, we identify three main contributors
including: 1) the rapid adjustment of clouds and rainfall to elevated
levels of carbon dioxide, 2) the associated low-frequency dynamical
responses in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and 3) the
contrasts in future climate forcing scenarios. Each uncertainty is
unlikely to be significantly narrowed over the likely timeframe of a
potential SAI deployment if a 1.5C target is to be met. The results thus
suggest the need for significant flexibility in climate intervention
deployment in order to account for these large uncertainties in the
climate system response.%
\end{abstract}%



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