Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of a vegetation demographic model
in a mixed conifer forest of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California
Abstract
Western U.S. conifer forests harbor diverse ecological strategies that
enable species to persist across a wide range of hydroclimate
conditions, along with wildfire and eruptive insect outbreaks. Assessing
climate influences on future forest composition and carbon sequestration
requires vegetation process models that have sufficient ecological
resolution to simulate this range of ecological variability. Here we
present progress towards incorporating multiple shade and drought
tolerance strategies in a vegetation demographic model parameterized for
Western U.S. forests. We used the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial
Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) to simulate a mixed conifer forest dominated
by ponderosa pine and incense cedar in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of
California. FATES resolves plant growth and respiration at the level of
cohorts, defined by size and plant functional type. Incense cedar is
shade and drought tolerant, while ponderosa pine is shade intolerant and
the canopy dominant. We synthesized literature values of plant traits
that correspond to important physiological and allometric parameters in
FATES and conducted a sensitivity analysis within the observed parameter
ranges with respect to carbon and water fluxes. Model output was
benchmarked against carbon flux, water flux, and leaf area index
measurements from the Critical Zone Observatory/AmeriFlux CZ2 site
during 2010-2012. Specific leaf area, Vcmax, rooting distribution, and
allometric equations had the most influence on simulated carbon and
water fluxes. Final simulated average annual gross primary production
(GPP) over 2010-2012 (1156 +- 79.2 gC/m2/yr) was 3.8% lower than
observed GPP (1202 +-138.2 gC/m2/yr). Simulated evapotranspiration (ET,
373 +- 25 mm/yr) was 62% lower than measured ET (993 +-158 mm/yr).
Simulated leaf area index (LAI, 1.2) was within the range of measured
LAI (0.5-1.5). Preliminary analysis indicates underestimation of ET is
likely due to an overestimation of soil water drainage. Our final
parameter set allows pine and cedar coexistence to emerge from a bare
ground initialization, and additional sensitivity testing of parameters
important for coexistence are in progress. Clearly, observationally
constrained parameters are critical for simulating ecosystem dynamics in
Western U.S. forests.