Ice sheet and climate processes driving the uncertainty in projections
of future sea level rise: a structured expert judgement approach.
Abstract
The ice sheets covering Antarctica and Greenland present the greatest
uncertainty in, and largest potential contribution to, future sea level
rise. The uncertainty arises from a paucity of suitable observations
covering the full range of ice sheet behaviors, incomplete understanding
of process influences, and limitations in defining key boundary
conditions for the numerical models. To investigate the impact of these
uncertainties on ice sheet projections we undertook a structured expert
judgement study. Here, we interrogate the findings of that study to
identify the dominant drivers of uncertainty in projections and their
relative importance as a function of ice sheet and time. We find that
for the 21st century, Greenland surface melting, in
particular the role of surface albedo effects, and West Antarctic ice
dynamics, specifically the role of ice shelf buttressing, dominate the
uncertainty. The importance of these effects holds under both a high-end
5°C global warming scenario and another that limits global warming to
2°C. During the 22nd century the dominant drivers of
uncertainty shift. Under the 5°C scenario, East Antarctic ice dynamics
dominate the uncertainty in projections, driven by the possible role of
ice flow instabilities. These dynamic effects only become dominant,
however, for a temperature scenario above the Paris Agreement 2°C target
and beyond 2100. Our findings identify key processes and factors that
need to be addressed in future modeling studies in order to reduce
uncertainties in ice sheet projections.