Time-of-Arrival of Coronal Mass Ejections: A Two-Phase Kinematics
Approach Based on Heliospheric Imaging Observations
Abstract
Despite the ability to image coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun
through the inner heliosphere, the forecasting of their Time-of-Arrival
(ToA) to Earth does not yet meet most Space weather users’ requirements.
The main physical reason is our incomplete understanding of CME
propagation in the inner heliosphere. Therefore, many ToA forecasting
algorithms rely on simple empirical relations to represent the
interplanetary propagation phase using, mostly, kinematic information
from coronagraphic observations below 30 solar radii (Rs) and a couple
rather implying assumptions of constant direction and speed for the
transient. Here, we explore a different, yet still empirical approach.
We replace the assumption of constant speed in the inner heliosphere
with a two-phase behavior consisting of a decelerating (or accelerating)
phase from 20 Rs to some distance, followed by a coasting phase to
Earth. In a nod towards a forecasting scheme, we consider only
Earth-directed CMEs use kinematic measurements only from the
Heliospheric Imagers aboard both STEREO spacecraft, treat each
spacecraft separately to increase the event statistics, analyze the
measurements in a data-assimilative fashion and intercompare them
against three popular localization schemes for single viewpoint
observations (fixed-φ, harmonic mean and self-similar expansion. For the
21 cases, we obtain the best mean absolute error (MAE) of 6.4±1.9 hours,
for the harmonic mean approximation. Remarkably, the difference between
predicted and observed ToA is < 52 minutes for 42% of the
cases. We find that CMEs continue to decelerate beyond even 0.7 AU, in
some cases.