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Projected Increase in Hydrologic Extremes in the Mid-21st Century for Northeastern United States
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  • Sujan Pal,
  • Jiali Wang,
  • Jeremy Feinstein,
  • Eugene Yan,
  • Veerabhadra Rao Kotamarthi
Sujan Pal
Argonne National Laboratory

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Jiali Wang
Argonne National Laboratory (DOE)
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Jeremy Feinstein
Argonne National Laboratory
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Eugene Yan
Argonne National Laboratory (DOE)
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Veerabhadra Rao Kotamarthi
Argonne National Laboratory (DOE)
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Abstract

Assessing the changes in future extreme hydrologic conditions due to climate change is essential. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on precipitation, streamflow and inland flooding in Northeast United States (NEUS) during the mid-21st century. Dynamically downscaled climate projections from global climate models were obtained using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over the North American continent. These were used to drive a high-resolution hydrologic model WRF-Hydro over NEUS. We performed three 10-year long simulations for historical (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) periods under business-as-usual scenarios at a spatial resolution of 200 meters. A general extreme value model was developed to project the risks associated with low-frequency events. Results from four major watersheds indicate a significantly wetter regime in peak winter months and potential drier conditions during late spring to early summer. Discharges in fall are projected to decrease in the northern watersheds and increase towards the south. Extreme flow, and water depths resulting from extreme inland flooding are projected to increase by 5-20% and >100%, respectively. Extent of the total flooded area is likely to be 20% greater by the mid-century. These increased risks can be attributed to: 1) approximately 25% increase in decadal mean, and >75% increase in decadal maximum precipitation intensity, 2) up to 30% lower snow availability and 5-25% higher evapotranspiration throughout the year, and 3) a projected 5% increase in soil moisture in all seasons except summer. Furthermore, rapid snow melting in winter might cause an earlier peak flow in the rivers.
Jun 2023Published in Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies volume 47 on pages 101371. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101371