Projected Increase in Hydrologic Extremes in the Mid-21st Century for
Northeastern United States
Abstract
Assessing the changes in future extreme hydrologic conditions due to
climate change is essential. This study investigates the potential
impacts of climate change on precipitation, streamflow and inland
flooding in Northeast United States (NEUS) during the mid-21st century.
Dynamically downscaled climate projections from global climate models
were obtained using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
over the North American continent. These were used to drive a
high-resolution hydrologic model WRF-Hydro over NEUS. We performed three
10-year long simulations for historical (1995-2004) and future
(2045-2054) periods under business-as-usual scenarios at a spatial
resolution of 200 meters. A general extreme value model was developed to
project the risks associated with low-frequency events. Results from
four major watersheds indicate a significantly wetter regime in peak
winter months and potential drier conditions during late spring to early
summer. Discharges in fall are projected to decrease in the northern
watersheds and increase towards the south. Extreme flow, and water
depths resulting from extreme inland flooding are projected to increase
by 5-20% and >100%, respectively. Extent of the total
flooded area is likely to be 20% greater by the mid-century. These
increased risks can be attributed to: 1) approximately 25% increase in
decadal mean, and >75% increase in decadal maximum
precipitation intensity, 2) up to 30% lower snow availability and
5-25% higher evapotranspiration throughout the year, and 3) a projected
5% increase in soil moisture in all seasons except summer. Furthermore,
rapid snow melting in winter might cause an earlier peak flow in the
rivers.