Abstract
Internal climate variability plays an important role in the abundance
and distribution of phytoplankton in the global ocean. Previous studies
using large ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs) have demonstrated
their utility in the study of marine phytoplankton variability. These
ESM large ensembles simulate the evolution of multiple alternate
realities, each with a different phasing of internal climate
variability. However, ESMs may not accurately represent real world
variability as recorded via satellite and in situ observations of ocean
chlorophyll over the past few decades. Observational records of surface
ocean chlorophyll equate to a single ensemble member in the large
ensemble framework, and this can cloud the interpretation of long-term
trends: are they externally forced, caused by the phasing of internal
variability, or both? Here, we use a novel statistical emulation
technique to place the observational record of surface ocean chlorophyll
into the large ensemble framework. Much like a large initial condition
ensemble generated with an ESM, the resulting synthetic ensemble
represents multiple possible evolutions of ocean chlorophyll
concentration, each with a different phasing of internal climate
variability. We further demonstrate the validity of our statistical
approach by recreating a ESM ensemble of chlorophyll using only a single
ESM ensemble member. We use the synthetic ensemble to explore the
interpretation of long-term trends in the presence of internal
variability. Our results suggest the potential to explore this approach
for other ocean biogeochemical variables.