Potential for electric vehicle adoption to mitigate extreme air quality
events in China
Abstract
Electric vehicle (EV) adoption promises potential air pollutant and
greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction co-benefits. As such, China has
aggressively incentivized EV adoption, however much remains unknown with
regard to EVs’ mitigation potential, including optimal vehicle type
prioritization, power generation contingencies, effects of Clean Air
regulations, and the ability of EVs to reduce acute impacts of extreme
air quality events. Here, we present a suite of scenarios with a
chemistry-climate model that assess the potential co-benefits of EVs
during an extreme winter air quality event. We find that regardless of
power generation source, heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) electrification
consistently improves air quality in terms of NO2 and
fine particulate matter (PM2.5), potentially avoiding
562 deaths due to acute pollutant exposure during the infamous January
2013 pollution episode (~1% of total premature
mortality). However, HDV electrification does not reduce GHG emissions
without enhanced emission-free electricity generation. In contrast, due
to differing emission profiles, light-duty vehicle (LDV) electrification
in China consistently reduces GHG emissions (~2 Mt
CO2), but results in fewer air quality and human health
improvements (145 avoided deaths). The calculated economic impacts for
human health endpoints and CO2 reductions for LDV
electrification are nearly double those of HDV electrification in
present-day (155M vs. 87M US$), but are within ~25%
when enhanced emission-free generation is used to power them. Overall we
find only a modest benefit for EVs to ameliorate severe wintertime
pollution events, and that continued emission reductions in the power
generation sector will have the greatest human health and economic
benefits.